Soyuz plans unclear as Gagarin 60th Anniversary approaches
In April, it will be 60 years since Yuri Gagarin took mankind’s first tentative step in to Space, onboard Vostok 1. This presents a golden opportunity for Russia to celebrate this occasion, by not only reflecting on past achievements and influence in manned spaceflight, but to showcase new milestones, and to re-ignite public interest, and enthusiasm, for cosmonautics.
But will this happen? As we enter Gagarin’s anniversary year, all these things are possible, but at this moment detailed planning for Soyuz flights in 2021, seems unclear and even disorganised.
Russia plans to launch three Soyuz MS flights, and two Expedition crews to the International Space Station in 2021, to support ISS operations, and the long-awaited arrival of the ‘Nauka’ science module. Roscosmos, with entertainment and media partners, would like to send an ‘ordinary’ citizen into Space in the person of an as- yet-unknown actress, and at the end of the year, to re-start orbital ‘space tourism’ after a twelve-year gap.
The three flights Soyuz MS-18, MS-19 and MS-20 have been in the flight roster for a couple of years. The hardware is in the pipeline; Soyuz MS-18 and its carrier rocket are already at Baikonur. But with less than three months to go until that first launch, crewing plans for all three missions are in a fairly confused state.
Politics, and money, appear to be driving the schedule, rather than Space Science, or celebrating Gagarin.
Until a few months ago, plans seemed fairly straight forward. With NASA dependence upon Soyuz ending with Kate Rubins’ launch on Soyuz MS-17, in October 2020 (at a cost of an eye-watering $90 million) MS-18 and MS-19 were to be routine crew exchange missions carrying all Russian crews, of ISS expedition members. Prime and back-up crews were provisionally in place.
Indeed, in November 2020, the crew of Oleg Novitsky, Pyotr Dubrov and Sergei Korsakov had been revealed as the first all-Russian crew to fly to the ISS, in its history. This was due to happen on 9th April 2021, on Soyuz MS-18, just three days before the 60th anniversary of Yuri Gagarin’s flight. Their back-ups would be Anton Shkaplerov, Andrei Babkin and Dmitri Petelin who, in the usual pattern of these things, would then fly the following mission MS-19, on 5th October. All, except the two commanders, are rookies, but all have been trained for the arrival and commissioning of Nauka, currently due to be launched in July 2021, after well over a decade in development.
However, within a few weeks of that crew announcement, photographs were published, by both NASA and Roscosmos showing five of the six cosmonauts mentioned above, training in Houston, with NASA astronaut Mark Vande Hei. Andrei Babkin was the missing cosmonaut, whilst Vande Hei had been the back-up to Rubins, and so had previously trained with Novitsky and Dubrov, for MS-17. These images raised a few questions, and within days, rumours began to surface that Vande Hei might be flying on MS-18, in April.
It’s worth mentioning, at this
point, that both NASA and Roscosmos have previously committed to the principle
of exchanging seats on each other’s spacecraft. This is known as the ‘barter
scheme’ and would mean that a cosmonaut would fly to the ISS on either Space-X Dragon
or Boeing Starliner, and NASA astronauts would continue to fly on Soyuz. No
money would change hands, and the arrangement would mean that both agencies
would be assured of a continuous presence on the ISS, in the event of a major
problem on a future crew exchange mission. The Russian side are not yet ready
to begin this arrangement, presumably wanting to see more the Dragon, and later
the Starliner, a little more flight proven.
It is well known that the end of NASA purchasing Soyuz berths has left a substantial hole in Roskosmos finances, and although several tourist and commercial Soyuz flights are in the pipeline for 2021 to 2023, the cashflow from these, is months and years away. So, the notion of selling a seat to Axiom is probably quite attractive to Roscosmos. The trade-off, is that there would be no prestigious all-Russian crew to celebrate Gagarin’s anniversary, and they would lose the presence of third crewman, for at least six months. As Novitisky and Dubrov are the most trained for the arrival of Nauka, it would probably be Sergei Korsakov who would miss out.
But why might NASA want to fly Vande Hei, at such short notice? The most logical answer, is that there is a concern, within NASA, that if the scheduled exchange of US crews, Dragon Crew-1 to Crew-2, due in late April was delayed, or significantly disrupted, there are various scenarios where the crew of Soyuz MS-18 would be alone on ISS, with no NASA presence. Exactly the situation which the future barter scheme is intended to prevent.
To muddy the waters further, in January 2021, Andrei Babkin was removed from the back-up crew, on medical grounds. This latest development is very sad for Babkin. He had previously trained for the Nauka related missions with Nikolai Tikhonov who was grounded last year, and who later left the cosmonaut squad after fourteen years of flightless preparation. Babkin was replaced by the very experienced Oleg Artymev, who looks like an over-qualified placeholder, for a back-up MS-18 crew which is unlikely to actually fly, but which is needed to support the prime crew, less than three months before launch. After this assignment, he'll probably revert to his previous planned slot as commander of Soyuz MS-21, due in 2022.
The situation with the Soyuz MS-19 crew, due to launch on 5th October, is even more confused. Nominally, it is currently the original Soyuz MS-18 back-up crew; Shkaplerov, Babkin and Petelin that is provisionally assigned. Anton Shkaplerov's place, as commander, seems pretty solid, regardless of what else happens. It seems unlikely that Babkin will reappear, so quickly after being removed from the previous back-up crew. If Vande Hei does fly, that will mean Korsakov is bumped from MS-18, so he becomes available for MS-19. So that would give us a new nominal crew of Shkaplerov, Korsakov and Petelin.
However, firstly we have to consider the proposed 'Movie in Space Project' described here named “The Challenge”. This involves sending a Russian
actress to the ISS which would require at least one seat to be freed up for the,
as yet, unknown woman. Dmitry Rogozin, head of Roscosmos has thrown his weight
behind this proposal, as a means of popularising spaceflight, in Gagarin’s
anniversary year, and is one of the Executive Producers, named in the movie’s
initial media release.
From the outside, it is impossible to judge how many actresses, or other qualified women have applied. This author has interviewed a couple, Svetlana Savina and Anastasia Barannik. TV channel, ‘First Channel’ and Roscosmos encouraged participants to signify their participation by using the hashtag #хочувкосмос, on Social Media. Around eighty have done so, and a handful of well-known actresses have confirmed their wish to enter. Otherwise, we have no clues on the level of interest.
However, the suggestion has met some opposition. Several prominent spaceflight observers have expressed concern that Roscosmos appear to be putting entertainment before science, and are diminishing the role and skills of professional cosmonauts, some of whom have trained for a decade, while waiting for their first flight.
Deputy Prime Minister, Yuri Borisov also spoke out during an interview with Moscow journalist, Inna Sidorkova, making it clear that he did not support the notion that Roscosmos might be bank-rolling a commercial project. “It is probably necessary to publicise the achievements of Russian cosmonautics……. If they find sponsors who will pay for the actors' stay in orbit and this does not interfere with the main scientific programme of the ISS, then by all means, let them film…….. but, I can tell you for sure that as long as I am in this position, I will not ignore any proposal for funding a feature film at public expense.”
So, it looks very much as though political heavyweights, on opposing sides of the argument, will determine whether this interesting project, clearly conceived to upstage Tom Cruise, will happen. According to the timeline which Roscosmos and the ‘First Channel’ announced in November, a short list of actresses, and other qualified women, would be made by the end of January. So, once again, some updated information should be imminent.
In addition, the third seat on Soyuz MS-19 could, according to Roscosmos sources, in December, also be occupied by another non-professional cosmonaut. There have been assumptions, among many commentators, that this would be another person connected to the movie. The name of the Director, Klim Shipenko, has even appeared on Wikipedia, in this connection. Certainly, someone will have to be a camera operator and/or sound recordist, and if this is not a specialist, a cosmonaut will have to do it!
Other sources have suggested that a paying Spaceflight Participant could fly. Space Adventures have their pioneering dedicated ‘double-tourist’ mission, due to fly in December, of which more, later. But, Glavkosmos, the commercial arm of Roscosmos is also now offering commercial Soyuz seats, from 2022. However, their Press Office have confirmed that they have no seats available on this flight, so this rumour seems doubtful.
Connected to all these scenarios will be the flight duration for the MS-18 crew. Commander Novitisky will doubtless return to Earth on MS-18, after MS-19 arrives, but who he'll have with him is anyone's guess? If the movie happens, Dubrov would probably have to stay ISS for a year, until Spring 2022, and perhaps Vande Hei too. Or maybe the third seat on MS-19 (up) will be another NASA astronaut to replace him? Oleg Novitsky will probably return to Earth with any two from Korsakov, Dubrov, Vande Hei, the Actress, the Movie Producer, SFP!!
In all this, there are several circumstances where Novitsky (landing) and
Shkaplerov (launch) might have to fly with two non-professional passengers.
This requires modification to Soyuz software and special training, for which, as
far as we are aware, only Alexander Misurkin and Sergei Prokopyev are currently
training, in preparation for Soyuz MS-20. This also needs to be factored in to
training, logistics and risk assessment processes and planning. Nothing in any
of this is easy.
And then there's Soyuz MS-20, the Space Adventures double tourist mission, for
which the original contract was signed in February 2019, and is due to launch
on 8th December for a twelve-day ISS visit. This will be the first
Soyuz to carry two paying ‘Spaceflight Participants’ (SFP) and is being flown
specifically for this purpose. As mentioned above, cosmonauts Alexander
Misurkin and Sergei Prokopeyev have been working with Soyuz designers and
engineers on modifications to the Soyuz MS interfaces, to allow it to be flown
by a single cosmonaut, with the SFP’s being literally passengers, during the
active phases of the flight.
Although no official announcement has been made, Misurkin is expected to command this mission. Two clients had signed-up for the flight by Summer 2020, according to previous statements from both Roscosmos and Space Adventures, and their identities were due to be revealed in January. Whilst there are still a few days of January remaining, it seems likely that this ‘reveal’ will be delayed, as travel to and from Russia is still restricted, and may not be a particularly attractive option, for those Space Adventure’s clients, until the travel and infection risks reduce.
And, is there any rush? Looking back at previous Space Adventure’s clients, in the period 2001-2009, they have generally been officially revealed, and begun training in Moscow, around six months before their planned launch. On that basis, it might be May or June 2021, until their identities need to be released. Space Adventures have previously said that such announcements are made in conjunction with their clients, who clearly need to be ready to synchronise their own PR, and handle any media attention which may ensue.
The duo who signed the contracts are understood to be an as yet unnamed, Japanese female pop singer, and the Austrian pilot and extreme sportswoman Johanna Maislinger. Both will fly with support from commercial sponsors.
Indeed, it is known that Maislinger may already have a problem, as she had some sort of accident, towards the end of 2020, in which she suffered several fractures. It is possible that this may remove her from contention for this mission, depending on her recovery, and any long-term impact. Neither Space Adventures, or her apparent sponsors, German venture capital outfit Interstellar Ventures GMBH, would make any comment on any Maislinger’s current status. As we said, it is possible that other candidates, who have managed to keep a lower profile, could still emerge.
If the plan above holds up, the two women will be the first orbital SFP’s since 2009, but the pace is about to pick up. The very helpful Glavkosmos Press Office have confirmed that they plan to have four seats available, on dedicated tourist or commercial flights, in 2022/3, and that they too are already negotiating with potential clients. Furthermore, if demand is there, they may accommodate additional clients on crew rotation flights. However, Glavkosmos do not envisage any involvement in Soyuz MS-20, which is Space Adventures exclusive mission.
What seems clear in all this, is
that with funds from NASA drying up, Roscosmos, through Glavkosmos, are seeking
to develop new income streams from their future Soyuz flights. While Space
Adventures seem likely continue to play a role in this, and they have a further
Soyuz contracted for 2023, Glavkosmos should emerge as an strong alternative
and rival. Some of this income generation will be driven by the deals which are
already contracted, some seem to be predicated on seizing short notice
opportunities, as they arise.
Are the critics who suggest that Roscosmos are putting money ahead of science right?
Will Roscosmos be able to put on a display befitting of the Gagarin anniversary, and which will put Russian cosmonautics in the spotlight?
Will the Russian public pay more attention to manned spaceflight, in 2021, than in any other year?
Perhaps, those are questions to be answered in January 2022.
© Tony Quine January 2021
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